Mnister Narandra Modiji Kundli Analysis
of the country in the last quarter of 2019 took curious undeterminable
and unpredictable turns. In May 2019, Prime Minister Narendra Modi led
his party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to an unprecedented
victory in the Lok Sabha election with an improved mandate bettering
his own record of 2014 and by the end of the year it appeared to be
normal course and in ordinary times, it is only just over six months
and few days and therefore an unthinkable proposition for a scenario
particularly that of politics to undergo a substantial change but
exceptional times dictate unexplainable turns and twists and that seems
to be happening.
repeats itself but if we want to assume that at present the political
situation in India is a repeat of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi’s
primeministerial years between 1971-77, then the country shall have the
answer to this by the year end.
year ended with nation wide agitations with youth, students and civil
society joining hands to oppose the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA),
2019 and the proposed National Register of Citizens (NRC) giving the
opposition a chance to regroup and realign, signalling a possible
change in the national politics. It was also reflected in the electoral
victory of the Jharkhand Mukti Mocha-the Congress-the Rashtriya Janata
Dal (RJD) alliance in the tribal state of Jharkhand.
people’s protests and setbacks in assembly elections in Haryana,
Maharashtra and Jharkhand, the ruling party in the Union capital led by
Modi and his confidante Union Home Minister Amit Shah remained
aggressively belligerent to deal with the developing political
situation by eventually dubbing the opposition to the CAA and NRC as a
Hindu versus Muslim issue thus polarizing the society hoping for the
BJP’s electoral advantage.
the other hand, developments of last three months seems to have
energized a thoroughly demoralised opposition that has begun to see an
opportunity for itself. Electoral victory in Jharkhand and coming to
power in Maharashtra along with opposition to the NRC by some of the
NDA alliance partners has provided further traction to the opposition.
The opposition, ranging from regional parties via the Congress to the
left, received a boost when a resolution against the CAA, was adopted
by the Kerala assembly that went on to unnerve the Modi government
fearing that more opposition ruled states may proceed on the same track
creating a serious constitutional crisis- a challenge to federal polity.
succession within the first month of the second term, the BJP
government enacted Muslim Women (Protection of Rights on
Marriage) Act, 2019 ending the Islamic practice of ‘triple
talaq’ that had been stalled in Parliament by the opposition
since 2017 when it was first introduced. The government had brought in
an ordinance on the subject first in 2018 and then in 2019.
BJP had gone for state assembly elections in October in the states of
Haryana and Maharashtra with a confidence of being sure that both
Devendra Fadnavis and Manohar Lal Khattar government would return to
power with a strengthened mandate improving the electoral record of
2014. In Haryana the BJP went on its own strength confident of the
popularity of the Khattar government that had given all 10 seats to the
party in the Lok Sabha couple of months ago, the party had observed
enough caution in Maharashtra by keeping its old ally-Shiv Sena in good
humour by conceding some ground.
electoral results on October 24 caused a setback when in both states,
the BJP fell below its 2014 performance, yet it could form the
government in Haryana with the help of a regional party while in
Maharashtra it failed to retain power taking a principled stand
refusing to give chief ministerial position to the Shiv Sena that was
its junior in term of number of seats. In the process, it ended losing
the state paving the way for its most disliked if not the most hated
opponent-the Congress-to sneak into power in company of the NCP and the
Shiv Sena that obviously fulfilled its long term ambition of occupying
the chief ministerial chair.
setbacks, the Modi-Shah duo went ahead with its long-term agenda and
pushed the CAA through the two houses of Parliament that facilitated
citizenship to persecuted Hindus, Sikhs, Christians, Buddhists, Jains
and Parsis from Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan leaving Muslims
outside of the provisions amended Act. The Home Minister also promised
to the nation both from the floors of parliament as well as in his
public meetings to bring the NRC.